Road Blockade at Chilean Mine Ends, LME Copper Surged Significantly Last Friday [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Monday, January 26, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,901/mt last Friday night, dipped to $12,826/mt at the beginning of the session, then the center of copper prices rose straight upward, fluctuated considerably and touched a high of $13,187.5/mt near the end of the session, finally closed at $13,128.5/mt, up 2.25%. Trading volume reached 30,200 lots, open interest reached 326,000 lots, an increase of 9,606 lots from the previous trading day, overall performance showed bulls increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 102,800 yuan/mt last Friday night, fluctuated downward and touched a low of 101,870 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of 103,350 yuan/mt near the end of the session, up 2.21%. Trading volume reached 139,800 lots, open interest reached 230,000 lots, a decrease of 1,038 lots from the previous trading day, overall performance showed bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On January 25, Finning announced a labor agreement with striking workers, ending the blockade of roads leading to Chile's two major copper mines, Escondida and Zaldivar. The agreement between labor and management resolved the labor dispute that began earlier this month, ensuring the restoration of access and normal operations at these two important mining areas.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on January 23, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a pattern of jumping up and then fluctuating rangebound after opening; it quickly jumped up after opening, rising from around 100,130 yuan/mt to touch a high of 101,190 yuan/mt, then fluctuated repeatedly within the range of 100,600 yuan/mt to 101,000 yuan/mt, closing at 100,750 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged between 280 yuan/mt and 230 yuan/mt. The import loss for SHFE front-month copper was between 100-320 yuan/mt. Looking ahead this week, spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure. The current term structure, combined with the ongoing inventory buildup in Shanghai and the narrowing import loss, collectively pose multiple pressures on the spot market. With persistent discounts, suppliers still have strong willingness to ship to delivery warehouses. Shanghai spot copper market is expected to maintain a discount pattern this week.
(2) Guangdong: On January 23, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average discount at 135 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 240 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 230 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 100,795 yuan/mt, up 485 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,700 yuan/mt, up 495 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory declined for two consecutive days and the premium rose slightly, but actual trading was poor.
(3) Imported copper: On January 23, warrant prices were $15 to $29/mt, QP February, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $17 to $27/mt, QP February, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was at -$16 to -$6/mt, QP February, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. Quotations referenced shipments arriving in mid-to-late January and early February.
(4) Secondary copper: On January 23 at 11:30, futures closing price was 100,750 yuan/mt, up 480 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums/discounts were -180 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of copper scrap rose 300 yuan/mt MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 89,300-89,500 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,865 yuan/mt, up 142 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,390 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, the trading volume in the imported copper scrap market has become more active due to tightening policies, but import traders expect imports to continue growing in February as stockpiling demand increases.
Prices: On the macro front, escalating tensions between the US and Iran, Greenland's sovereignty claims, and pressure on multiple Latin American countries, along with geopolitical risks, have collectively suppressed the US dollar. Coupled with the strengthening of precious metals and expectations of domestic policy easing, these factors have provided upward momentum for copper prices. Fundamentally, the market remains in a supply-demand tug-of-war. On the supply side, the overall supply of spot copper cathode is sufficient, while on the demand side, caution prevails due to high prices. Overall, the market shows a "macro-driven, fundamentally constrained" pattern, and copper prices are expected to hover at highs today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]